Advanced AnalysisIntermediate Level

Coolers vs Bad Beats: Complete Comparative Analysis

Understand the fundamental differences between inevitable situations and improbable suckouts in modern poker.

8 min readOctober 9, 2024CoolerTracker Team

Executive Summary

This article analyzes the fundamental differences between Cooler and Bad Beat detection algorithms in CoolerTracker. While coolers identify inevitable situations where both players have strong hands, bad beats detect improbable suckouts where the favorite loses against the odds. Both are mutually exclusive when significant equity swings occur.

Fundamental Definitions

Coolers (Inevitable Situations)

  • Concept: Situations where both players have extremely strong hands and it's impossible to avoid losing money
  • Main Characteristic: Both players have strong 'made hands' at the moment of all-in
  • Focus: Analysis of strong hand conflict patterns
  • Timing: Evaluates at the moment of all-in (when the decision is made)

Bad Beats (Improbable Suckouts)

  • Concept: Situations where the favorite player loses against adverse odds
  • Main Characteristic: A player had high probability of winning but lost
  • Focus: Equity and probability analysis throughout the streets
  • Timing: Evaluates equity progression from critical street to river

Key Differences

AspectCoolersBad Beats
Main MethodStrong hand pattern matchingProgressive equity analysis
Evaluation TimingMoment of all-inStreet of maximum advantage
Main CriteriaStrength of both handsProbability vs outcome

Practical Cases

Cooler Only (No Suckout)

Hero: 7♠ 7♥ (set of 7s)
Villain: J♣ J♦ (set of Js)
Board: 7♣ J♥ 2♦ 5♠ 8♣
COOLER: Set vs Set (EXTREME) - Direction: AGAINST
BAD BEAT: Hero never had >68% equity after flop
Analysis: It's a cooler because losing with the smaller set was inevitable. Not a bad beat because hero was never a significant favorite. Expected outcome given the hands.

Bad Beat Only (Suckout)

Hero: A♠ K♠ (flush draw)
Villain: 8♥ 8♠ (set)
Board: 8♣ 7♠ 2♠ | Q♠ | 5♠
COOLER: Draw vs made hand (explicit exclusion)
BAD BEAT: Hero had ~34% on flop, villain as favorite lost
Analysis: Not a cooler because hero had a draw, not a made hand. It's a bad beat because villain was favorite and lost against the odds.

Fundamental Principle: Mutual Exclusion by Suckout

If there's a significant suckout (bad beat), it CANNOT be a cooler simultaneously, because 'inevitability' is broken. Coolers require the outcome to be 'expected' given the hands, while bad beats identify when the outcome was 'unexpected'.

An outcome cannot be simultaneously expected and unexpected.

Practical Applications

For Tilt Analysis

  • Coolers: How many times did I lose with strong hands inevitably?
  • Bad Beats: How many times was I favorite but lost dramatically?

For Luck Analysis

  • Coolers in Favor: Situations where you had the strongest hand in inevitable spot
  • Bad Beats in Favor: Situations where you won as underdog

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Coolers vs Bad Beats: Complete Comparative Analysis